With the MLB trade deadline fast approaching, contenders are zeroing in on one of the most reliable arms available — Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller.
The 29-year-old has been linked to several playoff hopefuls, including the Yankees, Mets, and Cubs, and it’s easy to see why. Despite a middling win-loss record, Keller has posted a 3.48 ERA, 3.41 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a career-best 123 ERA+ in 2025, signaling his value beyond traditional metrics.
Durable and dependable
Keller isn’t just having a strong season — he’s built a durable track record. Since the start of 2022, he ranks 11th in innings pitched and 8th in games started among all pitchers with 300+ innings. His ERA+ over that span has hovered around league average, making him one of the most reliable mid-rotation arms in the sport.
While he may not be flashy, contenders covet that kind of stability, especially in postseason scenarios where depth can make or break a run.
Upside still untapped
What makes Keller even more intriguing is his potential ceiling. Though he’s nearing 30, some teams believe tweaks to his deep arsenal — which includes multiple breaking pitches, two types of fastballs, and a changeup — could unlock another level.
Pitching analysts have long noted Keller’s natural ability to generate seam-shifted movement due to his supinating delivery. This allows for deceptive action and break on his pitches that analytics-driven teams could exploit even further.
With the right adjustments in sequencing or pitch usage, it’s not unrealistic to think Keller could take another step forward, much like Seth Lugo did in his early 30s.
A team-friendly contract
Keller is also under contract through 2028 thanks to a five-year, $77 million extension signed in early 2024. With just $54.5 million owed beyond this season, his average salary of around $18 million per year is a bargain compared to what frontline starters command in free agency.
That affordability, paired with his durability and remaining upside, makes Keller one of the most valuable arms on the market — and perhaps one of the hardest for Pittsburgh to part with.
Why Pittsburgh might listen
Despite Keller’s impact, the Pirates are thin on offense and have organizational depth in pitching. Trading Keller could bring back multiple bats to help reshape the lineup, and with his value at a peak, Pittsburgh has reason to consider offers.
If they do move him, expect a bidding war — and don’t be surprised if he ends up anchoring a postseason rotation elsewhere.